Monday, March 28, 2011

Winners are Usually Losers

Last Monday, March 21 2011, the Floriday Lottery drew a very rare 5 digit sequential number sequence in the Fantasy 5. The numbers were:

14 15 16 17 18

This number set received a great deal of publicity both because it was sequential and also because it had a record 47 winners who collected  $4,581.74 each. Normally, this grand prize is in the range of $200,000, but since payout is based on a parimutuel basis, the actual amount decreases as the number of winners increase.

Obviously, there is a substantial set of dedicated players who like to play sequential numbers even though the payouts for these are substantially lower.

After reviewing the Fantasy 5 format, we find that a player must select 5 numbers from 1 to 35. If they are playing sequential numbers, there are 31 total combinations that must be played.

Reviewing this, we can conclude that sequential series do represent the ultimate wheel coverage in which a player can always be assured of matching 1 of the 5 numbers. But, this doesn't pay anything in Fantasy 5. Thus, we calculated that approximately 52.3% of all combinations will be losers. But, 47.7% of the time, a player will win at least one prize. We have then reviewed many of the actual drawing results for the past 2 years and found that those playing sequential number sets really do win something nearly half of the time.   However, even though the frequency of winning is high, the player can expect to lose about $29 to $30 per drawing anyway. So, in the long run, we find that winners are usually losers.

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Note: Based on the results of our Poll , we decided to recommend all Power & Mega balls in every drawing after Octorber 22, 2007. This change will make these lotteries consistent with the International and other "mega" ball based lotteries.
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